Which College GameDay Host Has Made The Dumbest Picks This Year?

PunditTracker|published: Thu 10th October, 15:03 2013

Originally published on PunditTracker.

Let’s take a look at how the experts on the ever-popular ESPN College GameDay show have fared with their weekly game predictions this year. With the help of Cole’s Gameday Blog, we have compiled all the picks of Lee Corso, Kirk Herbstreit, and Desmond Howard.

We then calculated each pundit’s Hit Rate, which is the percentage of picks that were correct, and Yield, which is the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the expert’s picks at Moneyline odds. The Yield awards pundits more credit for out-of-consensus picks and is the core metric we use for grading pundits at PunditTracker.

Here are the results:

Pundit	Record	Hit Rate	Yield
Desmond Howard	29-10	74%	$1.10
Kirk Herbstreit	51-23	69%	$1.00
Lee Corso	44-25	64%	$0.89

Note that Corso, Herbstreit, and Howard do not all pick the same games each week. Howard, who had made the fewest picks thus far, has turned in the best performance, hitting on 74% of his predictions with a superb $1.10 Yield. Herbstreit has not added or subtracted value with his picks, generating an even $1.00 Yield, while Corso has struggled, posting a meager $0.89 Yield.

Here are the 10 Best & Worst picks of the group. We define Best as the picks with the highest Yield and Worst as the incorrect picks with the highest point differential.

Best Predictions (Through Week 6)

Pundit	Prediction	Yield
Lee Corso	UCF to defeat Penn St	$2.78
Kirk Herbstreit	Indiana to defeat Penn St	$2.63
Kirk Herbstreit	Ball St to defeat Virginia	$2.56
Lee Corso	Virginia to defeat BYU	$2.27
Lee Corso	Auburn to defeat Ole Miss	$2.27
Kirk Herbstreit	N. Illinois to defeat Iowa	$2.27
Desmond Howard	N. Illinois to defeat Iowa	$2.27
Kirk Herbstreit	Ole Miss to defeat Texas	$2.17
Desmond Howard	Ole Miss to defeat Texas	$2.17
Kirk Herbstreit	UCLA to defeat Nebraska	$2.08

Worst Predictions (Through Week 6)

Pundit	Prediction	Pt Differential
Lee Corso	West Virginia to defeat Maryland	37
Desmond Howard	Boise St to defeat Washington	32
Kirk Herbstreit	Purdue to defeat Northern Illinois	31
Desmond Howard	Purdue to defeat Northern Illinois	31
Kirk Herbstreit	Boston College to defeat USC	28
Desmond Howard	Ole Miss to defeat Alabama	25
Kirk Herbstreit	Vanderbilt to defeat Missouri	23
Lee Corso	Texas to defeat Ole Miss	21
Lee Corso	USC to defeat Arizona St	21
Kirk Herbstreit	USC to defeat Arizona St	21

For the Best and Worst picks for each of the pundits, click here.

Finally, here is a look at how Lee Corso has done with his “headgear” picks:

Lee Corso “Headgear” Picks

Pick
Week 1: Georgia to defeat Clemson	WRONG
Week 2: Notre Dame to defeat Michigan	WRONG
Week 3: Alabama to defeat Texas A&M	RIGHT
Week 4: North Dakota St to defeat Delaware St	RIGHT
Week 5: LSU to defeat Georgia	WRONG
Week 6: Ohio St to defeat Northwestern	RIGHT

Corso is an even .500 this year with his Headgear Picks; since 2010, his record is 38-18 (68% Hit Rate).

We will continue to track all three pundits throughout the year. Meanwhile, start building your own track record for everyone to see by making picks on all the big games this weekend as well as predictions on the BCS Title, Heisman Trophy, and next USC coach. Just head over to our NCAA Football section to do so – use the ‘Vote Now’ buttons to make your selections. You can also see a full breakdown of all the picks of Corso, Herbstreit, and Howard there.

PunditTracker's mission is to bring accountability to the prediction industry by cataloging and scoring the predictions of pundits.