Which FCS Schools Could Pull off a Week One Upset (Or Maybe Just Cover)

The difference between college and pro sports is the potential for pure chaos. Yes, upsets happen at the professional level, but they’re all pro athletes for a reason.

There’s nothing in pro sports that compares to an FCS program taking down a Power Four squad. Last year, we didn’t see that happen, so it seems we’re due for a significant upset. Here are three major universities that could be on upset alert in Week 1.

Montana State vs. No. 7 Oregon (-29.5)

There’s only about a 1% chance Montana State actually wins this game, but the Bobcats have no business being 30-point underdogs.

Last season, Oregon was on the ropes against Idaho, holding just a three-point lead with under 10 minutes to play. That was likely a look-ahead spot, and it’s harder to overlook opponents in Week 1 without a ranked matchup until late September.

The bigger issue is Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, a UCLA transfer. This is the first time in the Dan Lanning era he won’t have an experienced play caller and the first time he has a true question mark at quarterback.

Montana State enters the year ranked No. 2 in the FCS. They scored at least 30 points in every game last season and took down FBS New Mexico.

If the Bobcats move the ball, Oregon could get nervous, and this one stays close.

South Dakota vs. No. 22 Iowa State (-14.5)

This matchup has trap game written all over it.

Coming off an emotional win in Ireland, Iowa State opens its home schedule against pesky South Dakota.

Last season, the Coyotes battled Wisconsin and beat eventual FCS champion North Dakota State. This year, they open the season ranked No. 5.

Iowa State’s defense seems legit, but did its offense show much in Dublin? The offensive line is shaky, and if South Dakota can muck things up and force turnovers, a major upset is possible.

Most importantly, the Cyclones must deal with a time change heading back to Ames, Iowa, and could overlook South Dakota after a conference-defining Week 0 win.

I like South Dakota to cover and potentially pull off the upset.

UT Martin vs. Oklahoma State (-23.5)

Mike Gundy’s Cowboys were terrible last season, finishing with his worst winning percentage since 2005.

Oklahoma State added 30 players via the transfer portal. Continuity wasn’t worth keeping, but that’s still a massive roster overhaul. The Cowboys also face a brutal schedule, including a nonconference game against Oregon. Could this be a look-ahead spot?

UT Martin made the FCS playoffs last season before being bounced by Montana State. Still, the Skyhawks have won their conference title every year since 2021 and are building momentum.

They could put a struggling Oklahoma State team on upset watch in Week 1. Take UT Martin to cover and potentially win outright.