World Series Game 4 Best Bets: October 28th's Top Props and Picks

Quite the classic last night. I thought that when I went to sleep and then they played for two more hours after that. Anyways, we’re back for more tonight, let’s try to find a couple winners!

Season Record: 27-27-2, -3.01 Units

Shohei Ohtani

½ unit Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100 FanDuel)
½ unit Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-160 Caesars)

Shohei had an incredible two homer, two double, five walk game last night. He got on base an incredible nine times. Yes, nine times. A normal human would probably have some degree of fatigue, but he’s of course the unicorn of unicorns.

He gets the start tonight and after the Dodgers used 13.1 IP of relievers last night, they will need him to give them some innings. It should not be an issue as he got through 6 IP in both of his previous playoff starts, lasting 89 and 100 pitches respectively. He struck out 9 in one game and 10 in the other.

I like the Outs prop better, but so does the market obviously as the prices reflect that. As we mentioned last week, the Jays remain extremely difficult to whiff, maintaining just a 15.8% K% in the playoffs and a league best 17.8% K% in the regular season. But another way to look at it is we get a good price on Shohei here as he has a 42.2% K% in the playoffs and a 33% regular season rate. So let’s just split in here.

Shane Bieber

Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-105 bet365)

It's the same idea here as the Jays used 13.2 innings of bullpen and this will not be a game where they give their starter a quick hook. The difference though is that he does not necessarily have the ability to go deep right now in terms of outs.

He might, I mean he’s shown flashes of his Cy Young self. But in three playoff starts he’s gone a total of just 12.1 IP with a 4.38 ERA with 16 hits allowed. He’s maxed out at 88 pitches, but they probably give him more rope tonight. His Outs props are extremely heavily juiced if you want to go over 14.5, and plus money for Over 15.5. The obvious takeaway is that the Jays expect him to last 5 innings.

I like the hits Over better mostly thanks to the pricing. They stopped pitching to Shohei last night and they’ll presumably keep walking him if at all possible. But it's not like it's a weak lineup around him. I’ll play this with the hits Over.