Auburn can't afford SEC tourney slip vs. Mississippi State

Field Level Media|published: Tue 10th March, 16:02 2026

NCAA Basketball: Auburn at Mississippi State

Feb 18, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Auburn Tigers guard/forward Kevin Overton (1) reacts as Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Josh Hubbard (12) talks with guard Shawn Jones Jr. (5) in the final seconds during the second half at Humphrey Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Auburn faces a must-win game against Mississippi State in the Southeastern Conference tournament's first round on Wednesday in Nashville, Tenn.

The 12th-seeded Tigers (16-15) sit squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble, the last team in according to ESPN's Bracketology and the first team out on Bracket Matrix entering theh week.

The Tigers ranked 40th in Monday's NET rankings but have lost eight of their last 10, including Saturday's 96-84 defeat at then-No. 16 Alabama that dropped Auburn to 4-12 in Quad 1.

"We have five of some of the best wins in the country," Tigers coach Stephen Pearl said. "We have the best win in college basketball at Florida. If you look at our quality wins and the other teams on the bubble, I don't think those teams get those wins."

The Tigers are 3-2 in Quad 2, which includes a Feb. 8 loss at 13th-seeded Mississippi State (13-18). Josh Hubbard led the Bulldogs to a 91-85 victory with a school-record 10 3-pointers and a career-high 46 points.

Auburn's inability to defend (124h in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.com) cost it dearly in that game as Mississippi State shot 50% from the field and 53.3% (16 of 30) from long distance.

Hubbard closed out the regular season with 42 points in a 102-96 home loss against Georgia on Saturday. He averages 22.1 points per game, second-best in the SEC.

"Yeah, I'd imagine you can't find a brighter red pen available to circle him on the scouting report for Auburn, considering what he did the first time we played them at home," Bulldogs coach Chris Jans said on Monday.

The Tigers have big-time scorers of their own in Keyshawn Hall (20.4 ppg), Tahaad Pettiford (15.2) and Kevin Overton (13.3) as well as KeShawn Murphy (10.6), who spent his first three years at Mississippi State and ranis second on Auburn in rebounding (6.8) behind Hall (6.9).

The Bulldogs' wild-card is Jayden Epps (13.7), who is capable of big-scoring games (23 at Missouri, 27 at Texas), who has scored above his average just once (14 vs. Florida) in the last nine games.

--Field Level Media