June 12 MLB Picks: Two Best Bets for Friday

Happy Friday! Let’s hope the weather holds out and today’s schedule goes off as planned for our MLB picks.

Season Record 35-30-1, +2.16 Units

Dodgers at White Sox

Roki Sasaki Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+126 DraftKings)

As if the Dodgers needed more help, they now have maybe another budding ace in Sasaki. After a rough and injury plagued 2025 it wasn’t even clear he would make the Dodgers rotation in 2025. But alas Blake Snell started the year on the IL and Tyler Glasnow always finds his way to the shelf and there was plenty of room at the inn for Sasaki. And he’s really started to pay off the Dodgers faith. After five starts, he had an ugly 6.35 ERA and 1.81 WHIP with just a 20.1 % K%.

But since then, he's been on fire. In his last six starts dating back to May 2nd he’s got a 2.55 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP. His K% has jumped to 27.1% while his BB% has dropped from 12% to 5.8%. He added a splitter and it has instantly turned into a positive value pitch for him as well as turning his fastball from negative to positive. As far as this specific prop goes, length is probably the biggest question mark. His Outs prop is 15.5 tilted -130 to the over and that looks pretty fair as he’s going about 5.5 IP per start. He has at least 7 K’s in three of his last four outings, including 10 vs. the Angels in last Friday. The White Sox have the third highest K% in the league at 23.9%, so even with Munetaka Murakami out, they whiff a lot.

Rangers at Red Sox

Under 8.5 Runs (-104 Kalshi)

We have two meh offenses here and I just don’t trust either one. The Red Sox have just 23 homers and 101 runs over the last month, both in the bottom five in the league. The Rangers are closer to the middle of the pack but still not great at 29 homers and 119 runs.

For the Rangers, Jack Leiter throws 97.1 MPH heat and has an excellent 25.5% K%, but his 10% BB% is too high. Ideally he’ll keep it more in the zone tonight against a team with basically two power threats; Jaren Duran and Willson Contreras.

The Red Sox counter with Sonny Gray, who’s got a 3.20 ERA but it's a little past his ski’s as he’s got just an 18.9% K%. It’s a kind of backwards year for him as he’s a mid 3’s ERA talent pitcher going back to 2018 who sometimes sees his bottom line go haywire. So let’s bank on him either reverting back to his usual form or at least managing to keep runs off the board like he has so far this season.