MLB Picks Today: Best Bets for Red Sox vs Royals and Orioles vs Rays

Okay, not the greatest week of MLB betting picks here, but we’re still hanging onto a profit on the year. But momentum is only as good as your next day’s pitcher… something like that.

So, let’s nail a couple MLB Picks today!

Season Record 22-19-1, +0.48 Units

Red Sox at Royals

It’s a battle between two major underachievers as the Red Sox visit the Royals. It’s the AL, so even with sub .450 winning percentages, both teams are within a few games of the last Wild Card spot.

We were supposed to have lefties taking the ball for each team, but the Royals’ Kris Bubic went on the IL yesterday. Instead KC will go with Luinder Avila in presumably a bullpen game since he’s maxed out at 3 IP this year. The Royals bigger problem is likely their ugly 87 wRC+ vs. southpaws and an even uglier 2-10 record in games started by them, with a -72.2% ROI as per VSiN.

Ranger Suarez gets the ball for the Sox. He has a 2.44 ER and 0.95 WHIP in 44.1 IP and is just about the least of Boston’s worries this year. He’s an anomaly in today’s game, succeeding with a 91.1 MPH fastball and 20th percentile 20.7% Whiff%. He excels by limiting walks (6.5%) and consistently suppressing dangerous contact.

Avila on top of not likely getting too far into the game is also not very good right now as he has a 5.28 ERA and just a 10.2% K-BB% out of the pen. He is a noted prospect though, ranking 6th in the Royals organization to start the season as per Fangraphs and he sits at 96.8 MPH with his fastball. Now pitchers lose velo when they need to cover more IP, and I’m not sure whether the plan here is to stretch him out a little or just run a bullpen game and hope Cole Ragans returns from the IL before this spot is due to pitch again.

It’s tough backing the moribund Red Sox in any spot this year, but Suarez on the bump vs. a team that struggles vs. lefties seems like as good a setup as any.

Orioles at Rays

Kyle Bradish Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104 DraftKings)

OK, this one’s a little trickier. The Rays rank as the second toughest team in MLB for righties to strike out at 19.1%. And Bradish has a 25.2% K%, which is good but not fantastic. But alas he has re-found something in his last two starts, whiffing 10 and 7 respectively for a 34.7% K%. And those numbers are not out of the blue for Bradish. He had a 32.5% K% in 39.1 pre TJ surgery innings in 2024, and a 37.2% K% in 32 innings in his 2025 return.

I’ll bet here that his Whiftastic skills are back.