NBA Draft Lottery 2026: Odds, Format, and How It All Works

Late Dodgers broadcaster Vin Scully delivered arguably one of the greatest assessments of sports’ relationship with chance moments before the Kirk Gibson home run in the 1988 World Series.

“And with two out, you talk about a roll of the dice, this is it,” Scully said.

It’s unlikely that such an iconic call will emerge from Sunday’s NBA Draft Lottery in Chicago (3 p.m. ET, ABC), although the event at McCormick Place still stands to leave a legacy.

The NBA is expected to amend the current format, effective next spring.

Say it ain’t so, 14-ping-pong-ball-system enthusiasts.

While reciting Lottery ins and outs might not be as easy as remembering post time at your Kentucky Derby party, this primer is the ticket to impressing whichever gathering you’re among ahead of Knicks-76ers Game 4 later Sunday afternoon.

How does this year's NBA Draft Lottery work?

The NBA Draft Lottery sets the order of selection for the first 14 picks of the league’s annual draft, slated for June 23-24 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. This is Lottery No. 42 if you’re scoring – or pulling ping-pong balls – at home. Actually, you can sort of do the latter, but more on that later.

Fourteen ping-pong balls, numbered 1 through 14, are used for the drawing, representing the teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs. Per math whizzes and NBA.com, there are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are pulled out of 14 “without regard to their order of selection.”

The NBA assigns 1,000 combinations to the participating lottery teams. The team that’s assigned the combination that is drawn receives the No. 1 pick in the draft. The NBA uses the same process for the Nos. 2-4 picks. The league discards the result and redraws if the same team “wins” more than once or the unassigned combo is chosen.

I played bingo with my grandma a few times growing up. Are these balls jumping around all afternoon?

Nah, not quite. On Sunday, the balls are placed in the lottery machine and mixed for 20 seconds before the first one is drawn. The balls that remain are mixed for another 10 seconds before the second one is chosen. Additional 10-second mixes transpire before the third and fourth balls are drawn.

Drawings take place before the draft order is broadcast on national TV.

Ten-second mixes, eh? Which lucky DJ gets to be on hand?

The NBA holds lottery drawings in a separate room. A representative from the accounting firm Ernst & Young witnesses the proceedings, alongside league office members, representatives from each lottery team, and select media members.

Later, NBA Deputy Commissioner and Chief Operating Officer Mark Tatum announces the results upon opening envelopes in reverse order. That is, the 14th pick is revealed first and the first pick last.

Which teams have the best odds of landing the top pick?

The Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets each have a 14% chance, based on regular-season finish. However, recent history shows it’s anybody’s ping-pong ballgame. The Dallas Mavericks had just a 1.8% chance last year before winning the lottery and landing eventual Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg.

Atlanta had merely a 3% chance in 2024 but still won.

The Lottery ensures that the team with the worst record selects no worse than fifth overall. Teams in positions 5-14 will pick according to reverse order of their records during the regular season, though tiebreakers could add further jockeying.

How do I try this at home?

ESPN Analytics unveiled a draft lottery simulator last week. Godspeed.