NFL Week 5: How low can Patriots-Dolphins go?

Field Level Media|published: Wed 2nd October, 12:32 2024

Sep 30, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins punter Jake Bailey (16) punts against the Tennessee Titans during the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

If sportsbooks offer the option to bet on punts over points in Week 5, action would be hot and heavy in a pair of NFL games where touchdowns are far from expected.

AFC East rivals huddle in Foxborough, Mass., on Sunday with the Dolphins (1-3) and Patriots (1-3) drawing heavy action betting the under, which is set at 35.5. If that number sounds preposterously low, it's because 35.5 is tied for the lowest total this season with another Week 5 game, Raiders at Broncos.

After the Dolphins finished second in the NFL in scoring at 29.2 per game last season, not many expected Miami's scoring machine to be muted to this extent.

But it's possible Miami will utilize a third starting quarterback in five games with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), Skylar Thompson (ribs) and Tyler Huntley (96 passing yards Monday vs. Tennessee) not looking like the right answer for head coach Mike McDaniel.

Miami is the NFL's only team with an 0-4 record against the spread.

As of Wednesday morning, BetMGM counted 75 percent of bets and 82 percent of money on the under (35.5) in Patriots-Dolphins. There's more action on the over in Raiders-Broncos.

Taking the over on the Dolphins is 1-3 this season, missing by an average of 7.6 points. Miami's once high-octane offense has four touchdowns in four games and ranks 32nd in the NFL in scoring.

New England is No. 31 -- 52 total points to Miami's 45 -- and also has four total TDs in four games.

Miami snapped a streak of 10 quarters without a touchdown on Huntley's TD run in the fourth quarter on Monday.

The Patriots have one touchdown in the past eight quarters, losses to the 49ers and Jets, in which New England had 16 total points.

In what sets up as a rock fight on Sunday, the names to know aren't Jacoby Brissett and Huntley. But Bryce Baringer and Jake Bailey.

Baringer has punted 20 times for the Patriots and averages 51.7 yards per attempt. Bailey is at 47.6 yards per punt with only one trickling into the end zone. Baringer has 13 downed inside the 20 and at least three in all four games this season, assuring the Dolphins a long field to work with on multiple possessions.

Barring a big surprise, Sunday sets up as punter appreciation day and prime viewing for under plays.

--Field Level Media