Six Things That Must Happen for USMNT to Win the World Cup

Despite considerable soccer progress over the last few decades, the United States is still a longshot to win the world’s most coveted trophy when the World Cup kicks off this week.

But at 50-to-1 odds, they are the kind of wager that occasionally comes through, somewhere along the lines of the 1969 Miracle Mets or 1985 Villanova Wildcats.

And instead of arguing over whether the Americans can win soccer’s crown jewel, it might be more useful to ask what conditions for an American World Cup triumph might look like.

Because the ingredients just might resemble what is taking shape under manager Mauricio Pochettino with his 26-man squad.

Modest public expectations

Maybe a win over Germany in the final World Cup tuneup last Saturday would’ve built confidence. But a promising defeat might have been even better in the long term.

While the players on the Soldier Field pitch will know they controlled long stretches against the four-time World Cup winners, the public will see just another in a string of losses to European opposition.

That will keep public expectations pretty low, where they’ve been since the Gregg Berhalter-era USMNT crashed out of the 2024 Copa America early. And it should allow the Americans to play with the kind of freedom required to make a deep run.

A coach who doesn’t care too much

Pochettino has been criticized for his apparent lack of deference to the USMNT head coaching job. But the fact that the Argentine knows his coaching future is not riding on how the USMNT performs is also liberating.

Achieving the highest ceiling for a team with a moderate talent level will require taking tactical risks, especially as the competition progresses and the quality of opposition improves. That’s a lot easier when you know your reputation isn’t really on the line.

A Gio Reyna breakout

Now we get to the hypotheticals.

That Pochettino included a Gio Reyna on his roster shows the Argentine means it when he says he wants to win the tournament.

Reyna has not exactly earned his place via previous call-ups or his club season at Borussia Monchengladbach. But he remains the team’s most technically gifted player, even more so than stars like Christian Pulisic or Weston McKennie.

And if the USMNT is going to be able to score against elite defenses, his playmaking ability in midfield will have to be a part of it.

Pulisic, Richards and Robinson stay healthy

Christian Pulisic, the Americans’ most reliable attacker, has dealt with a chronic hip issue in recent seasons. Antonee Robinson, one of the world’s best left backs when healthy, has struggled to find rhythm following surgery a year ago. Chris Richards, the USA’s best center back, has only just joined full-team training after an ankle injury picked up toward the end of the Premier League season.

All three are sure-fire starters when they’re healthy. And they will need to be for the majority of the tournament for a Cinderella run to materialize.

Freese ice cold on penalties

History suggests the Americans will need to win on penalties at least once to secure a title. That could mean they’ll need to see a repeat of one of Matt Freese’s first performances with the USMNT last summer.

After a 2-2 quarterfinal draw against Costa Rica, Freese saved three penalties against the Ticos to help the Americans advance. Over the longer term, while he has not proven himself a penalty specialist in the way of Argentina’s Emi Martinez or Australia’s Andrew Redmayne, he’s clearly the best of the American goalkeepers at the skill.

Lady Luck intervenes

To win an eight-game tournament as a moderate underdog is going to take at least a few fortunate bounces.

That could be something that happens on the field. It could be an opponent’s key absence owing to injury or card accumulation. It might even be a fortuitous refereeing decision influenced by a partisan American crowd.

The USMNT can’t go looking for them and get distracted from their gameplan. But they also need to be ready for them when they arrive, and can’t be picky about how.