Three Overlooked College Football Playoff Long Shots Worth a Bet

College football tends to stay “chalky” for the best teams each year, but every season we have a few teams that far exceed expectations.

Last season, we had far more than usual with Boise State, Arizona State, Indiana and SMU, so I’m trying to find a few teams that are being overlooked this preseason.

Texas Tech (+450)

OK, this one isn’t very bold, but I think this is the best value available for any team to make the playoffs.

The Red Raiders crushed the portal this offseason, bringing in the second-rated transfer class. Head coach Joey Maguire has been making strides at Texas Tech, and now with the added NIL support behind him, this could be the year they take that leap and compete for a Big 12 title.

Colorado is the only other team in the Big 12 to have a top-25 transfer class this offseason, so there might be more talent in Lubbock than anywhere else in the conference.

This isn’t so much a bet on Texas Tech, but a bet against the rest of an underwhelming conference.

Iowa (+900)

Does Iowa have a QB?

Is Mark Gronowski, the transfer out of South Dakota State, the best QB that Iowa has seen since Brad Banks?

I am a massive fan of Gronowski, an athletic QB with a big arm who can stretch a defense. I’m not concerned with his talent, but I am worried that Kirk Ferentz will misuse it.

He’s struggled to show anything on offense for years now, but I’m taking a risk on them taking a massive leap forward this year.

Lastly, every team in the Big Ten is going to have a brutal schedule, but Iowa received a pretty solid draw. Iowa State early in the year will always be a battle, but in conference, Iowa’s three most challenging games—Indiana, Oregon and Penn State—are all in Iowa City.

If they beat Iowa State and go 1–2 in those games, they’ll have a great shot at the playoffs.

Liberty (+1000)

I don’t love any of the Group of Five teams this year to make the playoffs, but Liberty has the best shot.

Pros: Their schedule is a joke.
Cons: Their schedule is a joke.

This bet is a straightforward one. Liberty goes undefeated in an elementary schedule, every other non-Power Five program loses at least twice, and Liberty steals the final playoff spot.

They’ve shown for multiple years in a row that they will put out a winner, so I don’t see why this year would be any different.

The only way I see this backfiring is another Group of Five team going undefeated or even only having one loss. Liberty will need help from other teams, but if they handle their business, they’re going to be in a great position.