Big 12 Sleeper Picks: Three Teams That Could Win the Conference in 2026

The Big 12 ran through Texas Tech last season, and it looked like that would continue to be the case heading into 2026. The Red Raiders went all in on transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby, but that obviously fell through.

With Sorsby’s removal from Lubbock, prediction markets quickly shifted odds to show that the Big 12 is looking equally competitive this season. Texas Tech fell from a peak 62% chance to win the conference down to just 45% while Utah rose from 5% to 29% for the second-best odds.

I’m not entirely confident in Utah this season. Kyle Whittingham’s departure concerns me, and Devon Dampier’s big-game play does as well. This team felt like a very lucky 11-2 last season, and their bowl victory over a depleted Nebraska team doesn’t move the needle for me.

I think you can find some better value further down the Big 12 power rankings. Here are three teams that can be surprise champions in the Big 12 this season.

Houston +1600

Texas Tech might be the current favorite in the conference, but I think there might be a better contender in the state. Houston played a ton of close games last season on their way to a surprise 10-3 campaign, but I think they’re much improved this year.

I just think the Cougars have a lot of things to like this season. They got beefier in the trenches through the transfer portal, and they can lean on a solid returning quarterback in Conner Weigman; however, I am all in on freshman quarterback Keisean Henderson. He was the top recruit in the class of 2026, and has shown why during spring and summer practices. If Weigman doesn’t play well early, expect a Spencer Rattler-or Caleb Williams-type experience down in Houston.

Arizona +1800

This pick comes down to one thing. I believe Noah Fifita is an absolute stud. Fifita is under 1000 yards from breaking Nick Foles’ school record of 10,011 yards, and for good reason. He was one of the best play callers in the Big 12 last season, and they have more talent around him this year.

The Wildcat defense turned it on down the stretch last season, but if they can provide more consistent support, then I believe this offense can at least power them to a conference championship appearance. I’ll never think it's a poor decision to bet against the best quarterback in the conference.

Oklahoma State: +3000

The North Texas Cowboys… I mean, the Oklahoma State Cowboys can compete in the first year of the Eric Morris era. It might be insane to bet on a team that just finished 1-11 last year, but in the transfer portal era, you can have a brand new football team in one offseason, and that’s just what Oklahoma State did.

No team in the country brought in a better pair of transfers than Drew Mestemaker and Caleb Hawkins. They’ll once again be a part of one of the best offensive systems in college football under Morris. Mestemaker led the country in passing yards, and Hawkins led the country in rushing touchdowns. The talent will be much stronger in the Big 12, but having those two is a great first step.