Three World Cup Futures Bets Worth Making Before Kickoff

Crunch all the numbers you like.

But with the wild variability of international play, smart handicapping of international soccer events like the World Cup often defies the data.

The good news for bettors is that you can often find more value than you might in the more controlled pro club environment, where there are much larger samples and far fewer secrets.

With that in mind, let’s look at three futures wagers you should be making right now as we set to open up the 2026 World Cup on Thursday.

Confederation to win The World Cup

World Cup winners have historically correlated to World Cup host location.

European sides have won 10 of the 11 tournaments played on European soil. South American sides have won nine of the 11 tournaments played elsewhere, and seven of eight played in the Americas.

Further, all of this year’s South American entrants have very recent experience managing the travel and playing conditions in the United States from the 2024 Copa America that was hosted in many current World Cup venues.

Only two South American teams rank in the top 10 (Argentina, Brazil) in overall squad value, but trans-Atlantic economic disparities often drive down valuation of South American talent relative to Europe. Colombia, Uruguay and Ecuador all have considerable quality, enough that a deep run from any of the trio is not out of the question.

None of this is a guarantee that a South American side will win. But it’s almost certainly more likely than the implied probability 23.8% of a +320 wager.

Confederation to Win The World Cup Best Bet: Conmebol (+320, FanDuel)

Most Assists for Colombia

There are plenty of questions about the fitness of James Rodriguez, who barely saw the field in half a season with Minnesota United in MLS and last played in a World Cup in 2018.

But he has always been the best version of himself when playing for his national team. And that best version at age 34 is the guy providing the final ball rather than finishing it.

Rodriguez led all of Conmebol in World Cup Qualifying with seven assists and was also the top assist man at the 2024 Copa America. And his first two opponents should provide plenty of opportunity for creating chances from corner kicks and free kicks, as World Cup debutants Uzbekistan and last-gasp qualifiers DR Congo are likely to be quite cagey and conservative.

That Rodriguze is not favored over Luis Diaz in this market is a blatant oversight. Take advantage by backing him to lead his team in goals assisted at +450 odds and an implied 22.2% probability.

Most Assists for Colombia Best Bet: James Rodriguez (+450, Caesars)

Ivory Coast Phase of Elimination

The Elephants have plenty of talent playing, but their tournament itinerary feels like a recipe for disaster.

They open against Ecuador, a nation overshadowed on their continent by the likes of Argentina and Brazil, but one that has now gone unbeaten in 19 matches.

If they lose that encounter -- and they’ll be slight underdogs -- they enter a second match against Germany as a must-draw, a bad place to be against a Julian Nagelsmann-managed squad that excels on punishing mistakes of desperate opponents.

So there’s a very real chance the Elephants could enter the final matchday without points, knowing they only have a faint chance to advance as a third-place side. And they'd face a Curacao side that has more talent than you might think under manager Dick Advocaat, and one that might smell a chance of their first-ever World Cup win.

Maybe it's not the most likely scenario. But it's plausible, and one worth betting on at +450 odds and an implied 22.2% probability.

Ivory Coast Phase of Elimination: Group stage (+450, Fanatics)