Chandler Simpson Is an Anomaly for Tampa Bay Rays

Chandler Simpson has become a hot-button topic in baseball conversations. To simplify the issue, old-school guys love his high-contact approach, while modern, analytical viewers hate his game because he provides below-average offensive production according to their stats.

I don’t think either group is absolutely right on Simpson. Both groups are leaning into narratives that better suit their arguments for or against him. To analyze Chandler Simpson, I think it takes a little bit more nuance.

To start, if you think Simpson has been an overall bad player in 2026, you are objectively wrong. He’s only been a slightly below league-average hitter, while playing some of the best defense out in left field and providing tremendous value on the base paths. If you don’t agree with those sentiments, you are simply hating a guy for no reason.

However, I’m not sure he can maintain his consistent performance at the plate like he has so far this year. Simpson does have some elite traits; he carries 99th percentile whiff%, K%, and squared up percentages. He creates a ton of contact and does as much damage as he can with the slowest swing in the sport. Also, he only strikes out 8.8% of the time, so he’s going to put the ball in play very frequently.

Since he puts the ball in play a ton, he, in turn, has a ton of bad batted ball data. Simpson rarely walks and chases after bad pitches, which really limits how productive he can be offensively. Additionally, his expected stats are a mixed bag. His xBA is higher than his actual batting average, but his xWOBA outpaces his actual WOBA. What we're currently seeing from Simpson is one of the better versions we've seen, unless he starts becoming more patient at the plate.

Furthermore, he has generated only an OPS+ of 95 this year, 5% below the league average, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Simpson has stolen 11 bases this year, and in my eyes, steals should be looked at similarly to doubles when it comes to OPS. His OPS would be nearly 100 points higher if you counted his steals as doubles to his stats, and he would have an OPS+ of 116, which would be a well-above-average hitter in baseball.

Chandler Simpson is a flawed baseball player, but his polarization has been completely unfair. He’s a solid player who gets on base, plays great defense, and can steal bases. As long as those things stay consistent, he’s going to play in the MLB for a very long time.