Five Golfers Most Likely to Win Their First Major at the U.S. Open

Nobody picked J.J. Spaun to roll in a 64-foot birdie putt on the final hole of the U.S. Open last year when par would have done the job.

Heck, nobody picked Aaron Rai to shoot 6 under over his final 10 holes to win the PGA Championship just a month ago.

This is the beauty of golf’s major championships, when mixed in with the Scotties and the Rories are some underdogs who aren’t on the average fan’s radar yet possess the game deserving of a major title that week.

I wanted to re-rack the number of top contenders to win their first major at the U.S. Open this week at Shinnecock Hills on Long Island. I did a similar exercise before the PGA -- a list eventual winner Rai was nowhere close to -- but back then, I was focused on compiling the list of best overall players without a major. This time, I’m more interested in the best picks of who might end their 0-fer drought this week, based on recent form and course fit.

For instance, you won’t find New York native Cameron Young on today’s list even though he is the highest-ranked player without a major. His bogey avoidance and scrambling ability are well-suited for a U.S. Open and he very well may win this week, but he’s been quiet since a T26 at the PGA (one start, four over-par rounds at the Memorial) and there are some names I like better.

Viktor Hovland

Sure, real smart, let’s open with one of the sport’s most fickle young talents with only five major top-10s to his name. A third-place showing at the Canadian Open really got him on this list? Well, that’s part of it. It was by far Hovland’s best finish of 2026, and he didn’t necessarily have his best stuff entering Oakmont last year when he went on to take third place, his best finish at a U.S. Open.

Like others on this list, Hovland’s fit at Shinnecock has me intrigued. He ranks 16th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and 21st in strokes gained on approach, so he should find plenty of fairways and greens. And unlike earlier parts of his career, Hovland is gaining strokes around the green (read: chipping).

Tyrrell Hatton

I’ll be driving Hatton’s bandwagon until he gets the job done at a major, and his missed cut at the PGA Championship doesn’t dissuade me. He tied for third at the Masters and tied for fourth at last year’s U.S. Open, so this isn’t an example of a LIV Golf player not being tested well enough during the regular season to be ready when majors roll around (cough Bryson DeChambeau cough).

In fact, Hatton is coming off a victory at LIV Golf Andalucia, which, unlike many of the events held at random courses in the United States, is played at the respected Valderrama Golf Club in Spain, a former Ryder Cup and PGA Tour venue. One more thing to note: Hatton tied for sixth when the U.S. Open was last played at Shinnecock in 2018, and he scored better as the week went on.

Si Woo Kim

Go on, show off to your golf friends. Ask them to name the player with the most made cuts without a miss this season. Only sickos like you will know the answer is Si Woo Kim, who’s 16 for 16 entering the U.S. Open, with two runners-up and 10 top-25 finishes. The Korean is playing the best golf of his 10-year PGA Tour career.

Of course, the trouble with Kim is that his game has never translated to a major championship. But Shinnecock feels like a test Kim could ace. He’s third on tour in driving accuracy, sixth in strokes gained on approach and 25th around the green. His putter is what prevents him from winning more often, but Kim does rank fourth on tour in bogey avoidance, a key stat at a difficult major where pars will be the currency of the week.

Russell Henley

The last two names on this list are top-10 players in the world, so we’ve admittedly left the realm of the “dark horse” picks. My impression is that Henley isn’t a household name due to the lack of a big win, but that just means his prices should be worthwhile if you want to bet on him for a top-10 this week – or even an outright win.

The case is simple: Henley has finished top-10 at five of the past eight majors and each of the past two U.S. Opens. He actually shared the first-round lead at Shinnecock in 2018 before fading to a T25. These days he is known for his irons, but there is no weakness in his game – and he ranks first on tour in driving accuracy, first in scrambling and second in bogey avoidance, the ideal makeup of a U.S. Open winner. Finally, he’s in great form, having won the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial three weeks ago.

Tommy Fleetwood

You’re going to hear this factoid a lot this week, so let me be the first to tell you: In 2018, Fleetwood fired a final-round 63 at Shinnecock and finished one shot shy of Brooks Koepka. Had Fleetwood not gone out on Saturday and posted 78, he may have won and the entire trajectory of his career would feel different. As it stands, just like with Hatton, I’m always going to toot Fleetwood’s horn as someone who deserves a major win before his time is up.

Missed cut at the PGA aside, Fleetwood has carried great form through this year, peaking recently with two top-fives at signature events (Truist, Memorial) and a T11 in Canada last week. He’s trustworthy off the tee and stellar around the greens (ranking fifth in strokes gained and fifth in scrambling). As always, this really could be the week he puts it all together.