Four World Cup Teams Who Have No Real Chance of Winning It All

Pretty much everyone knows France and Argentina are serious World Cup contenders. We also feel pretty confident that Cape Verde and Curacao aren’t.

But some sides are coming to the 2026 tournament with vibes higher than their true chances.

Here’s four teams who definitely aren’t winning the World Cup, even though they probably think they can.

Croatia

What legendary midfielder Luka Modric and manager Zlatko Dalic engineered in helping a nation of fewer than four million people finish second at the 2018 World Cup and third in 2022 is nothing short of extraordinary.

But 2026 is where it ends.

Modric is 40. And while he is still playing the overwhelming majority of minutes for AC Milan,it was for a
Rossinieri side that failed again to reach the UEFA Champions League despite not having any European commitments in 2025-206.

But Croatia still rely on him, as they do on the 37-year-old Ivan Perisic. Their options at striker are underwhelming, their draw is tough and their schedule is brutal. They’d have to play eight matches to win the title in just 33 days, and that’s too much for a team that skews this old.

Portugal

Roberto Martinez’s Portuguese squad is not nearly as reliant on older players across the pitch, but the 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo is still the man relied on to produce goals, leading his side with five in World Cup qualifying.

That might be sustainable if Ronaldo played in more of the Lionel Messi model, where he’s guaranteed to make others on the pitch better even if he isn’t finding the net. But that’s hardly been the case with
CR7, particularly later in his career.

He’s already on the defensive with the media after two underwhelming performances in tune-up friendlies. And if circumstances force Martinez to opt for someone else on the pitch, Ronaldo’s history of not always taking such news in stride is well documented.

Germany

Yes, the Germans are tied with Italy as Europe’s most-decorated World Cup nation. But Italy has shown us how little that means. And as for the present-day Der Mannschaft, while the team is balanced with good players across the formation, it’s hard to identify anyone who is truly great in the role the national team is asking of them.

That includes Arsenal’s Kai Havertz, who perhaps qualifies among the best in the world at his natural position as a second forward or attacking midfielder, but not as much when he’s asked to lead the line as a No. 9. Until proven otherwise, it also includes Florian Wirtz, who moved to Liverpool last summer for a reported Premier League transfer fee of $117.5 million but hasn’t yet lived up to the pricetag.

This is still a strong enough team that a deep-ish run (think semifinals) is possible. But capturing the title takes a little more quality than this version of Germany has.

Uruguay

La Celeste have historically been a South American answer to what Croatia have done in recent years, but this World Cup finds the first-ever champions amid their own generational transition.

Luis Suarez retired from international play and has now been engaged in a war of words with polarizing Argentine manager Marcelo Bielsa. Darwin Nunez made the puzzling decision to head to the Saudi Pro League last summer instead of finding a way out of Liverpool that kept him in Europe.

Real Madrid’s Federico Valverde is as exceptional as he is versatile. But the rest of Uruguay’s strength is in the back half of the pitch. That’s an OK formula for getting out of the group, but it’s hard to know where
La Celeste’s moment of magic may come from when they need it.