MLB Picks for Today: Why the Marlins and Yankees Offer Betting Value

Tough night last night, even more so for my Fantasy teams that had Trevor McDonald going. Anyways, let’s try to get it back with today’s MLB picks

Season Record 42-42-2, -2.78 Units

Mariners at Marlins

Marlins F5 (+125 BetRivers)

The Mariners make the furthest trip in MLB to take on the red hot Marlins in Miami tonight. Well, they traveled a couple days ago so presumably their body clocks have adjusted by now. The problem is that the Mariners are just plain lousy on the road this year. They have a 92 wRC+ and have gone just 15-21-8 on the F5 moneyline for a -22.5% ROI that’s 3rd worst in MLB. What’s more they’re currently minus their best hitter as Julio Rodriguez remains in the concussion protocol.

The Marlins surprisingly have emerged as one of the best offenses in MLB. Yes they got the benefit of a week in Colorado and Sacramento, but wRC+ accounts for park factors. And over the last 30 days they have a 128 wRC+ that’s second best in the league. Otto Lopez (who should be nicknamed “The Bus Driver) leads all qualified hitters with a .346 average. But it's far from just him as they feature 8 regulars (or semi regulars) with a wRC+ of at least 115 over the last 30 days.

Their big risk is pitching, as Janson Junk is expected to return from the IL to start today. Hard to know what we get today and even in peak form he’s league average at best. But the good news is that it keeps the price down on the red hot Marlins so let’s roll with Miami here.

Yankees at Rays

I’m going to go against current trends here as the Yankees have looked mostly lousy lately. But they still pose problems for lefties as they have a 110 wRC+ against southpaws that ranks 3rd in baseball. The Rays start a good one tonight in Shane McClanahan (3.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) while the Yankees counter with Gerritt Cole (4.01 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). They’re a bit similar in that both are ace level when healthy, but back off extended absences in 2024 and it’s a bit inconsistent from game to game.

I know the Rays whole is always greater than the sum of their parts, but those parts are kind of meh beyond the scorching hot Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda. The Yankees themselves are slowly emerging from one of the worst offensive weeks a team has ever had. And there’s no Judge or Stanton, but Paul Goldschmidt is here to terrorize lefties with a 222 wRC+ and 1,162 OPS against them this year. Well hopefully, he hasn’t had a hit since June 25th. Let’s still roll with the Bombers at a good price.