NBA Play-In Player Props: Donovan Clingan, LaMelo Ball Headlines Best Picks

The play-in tournament gets underway tonight. The Eastern Conference 9th place (Miami Heat) vs. 10th place (Charlotte Hornets) game gets things started, with the Western Conference’s 7th place (Portland Trail Blazers vs. 8th place (Phoenix Suns) game to follow.

Sportsbooks will, of course, carry the traditional betting line along with full player prop menus. In this post, I’ll go over my favorite player props for tonight’s games.

Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets
LaMelo Ball, OVER 4.5 Made Threes at +134 (FanDuel)

I did a double-take on this one when I first saw it. At first, I thought I had to be misreading it, that it must be an old page for Steph Curry back in his prime or something. But no, the market is for LaMelo Ball to hit over or under 4.5 3-pointers.

Incidentally, it is a number he’s gone over in his last five games and in eight of his last 12. Opponents averaged 14 per game against the Heat (No. 22) while attempting 39 (35.9%). If recent history is any indication of what we can expect, he’ll attempt enough to have a good shot at the over.

Requiring five made threes makes me nervous, but I can’t pass this value up.

LaMelo Ball, OVER 12.5 Attempted Threes at -120 (bet365)

He averaged 13.2 attempts in April (six games), and that with trying only six against Phoenix (April 2). In May, he averaged 11.7 attempts and tried over the total in six of 15 games. With a chance to move on and keep playing at stake, I expect Ball to let it fly early and often against a Heat team that is not great at defending the perimeter.

The price isn't great, but I’d be shocked if he finished under this mark.

Norman Powell, UNDER 18.5 Points at -120 (bet365)

Powell averaged 21.7 points per game this season. He has gone over this prop in 43 of 58 games this season, but under it in five of his last ten and in three of his last four. But Charlotte had the No. 7 defense in the regular season (111.2 points per game allowed) and the best defense over the last 15 games (106.3 points per game allowed).

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns
Donovan Clingan, UNDER 12.5 Rebounds at -120 (DraftKings)

I’ve seen a lot of analysts take the over because Phoenix is not a super-strong rebound team. However, the difference between the Suns' rebound average at No. 20 and Oklahoma City's at No. 12 is just a single rebound per game. Opponents are averaging 43.7 per game against the Suns (15th best in the NBA), one rebound away from being in the top ten.

Clingan has gone over this mark in two of three games against the Suns, but in just one of his last seven games. He went under this mark in 47 of 77 games played.